🔍 Key Points
Primary Scenario: Long positions above 1.3774, targeting 1.4300 – 1.4800.
Buy Signal: Price holds above 1.3774
Stop Loss: Below 1.3720
Take Profit: Between 1.4300 and 1.4800
Alternative Scenario: A confirmed breakdown below 1.3774 could trigger a decline towards 1.3575 – 1.3427.
Sell Signal: Clear break below 1.3774
Stop Loss: Above 1.3820
Take Profit: Between 1.3575 and 1.3427
📊 Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD
Based on Elliott Wave Theory, the USD/CAD pair appears to be in the final stages of a larger bullish impulse structure. Here’s a breakdown of the wave count across multiple timeframes:
A larger degree Wave 5 seems to be forming on the weekly chart.
Within it, Wave (5) of 5 is actively developing.
The third wave of a smaller degree inside (5) has likely completed on the daily chart.
A minor correction—Wave 4 of (5)—also appears to have concluded, including the formation of a complete sub-wave c of 4.
Currently, Wave 5 of (5) seems to be unfolding on the H4 timeframe, suggesting potential for further upside.
If this analysis holds, the USD/CAD could rally toward the resistance zone between 1.4300 and 1.4800 in the coming sessions. However, a decisive break below the 1.3774 support level would invalidate this bullish outlook and open the door to a bearish correction toward 1.3575 – 1.3427.
📉 Current Market Conditions (as of May 2, 2025)
USD/CAD Price: 1.38221
Sell: 1.38184
Buy: 1.38221
Daily Change: -0.23 (-0.00314%)
Market Sentiment: 50% Neutral
🧭 Trading Strategy Summary
✅ Bullish Setup
Entry: Buy above 1.3774
Stop Loss: Below 1.3720
Take Profit: Between 1.4300 and 1.4800
❌ Bearish Setup (Alternative Scenario)
Entry: Sell if price breaks and closes below 1.3774
Stop Loss: Above 1.3820
Take Profit: Between 1.3575 and 1.3427
🧠 Conclusion
The USD/CAD pair is currently in a technically critical position. Based on the Elliott Wave structure, a continuation of the uptrend is highly likely—as long as the 1.3774 support holds. Should this level break, however, a bearish correction is expected.
This forecast supports a trend-following strategy for Forex traders, with a clear risk-reward structure.
📌 Recommendation for Forex Traders
Use multiple confirmations (such as RSI, MACD, or candlestick patterns) before entering a trade.
Monitor economic news from the US and Canada, especially NFP, CPI, and BoC rate statements.
Maintain strict risk management, especially with key levels like 1.3774 and 1.3720 acting as reversal zones.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult your financial advisor or conduct independent analysis before trading in the Forex market.
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