EUR/USD Today – NFP Beats Forecast, ECB Cuts Rates Again (June 11, 2025)

📉 EUR/USD on June 11, 2025: Real-Time Update

• Current Rate: The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.1416–1.1420, testing support levels around 1.1375 – 1.1380 and resistance at 1.1445 – 1.1500.

• Technical Indicators: The pair forms a triangle pattern, indicating potential upside toward 1.1545 or a downward correction if the support is breached.

🌍 Market Context

1. Impact of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

• May’s US Non-Farm Payrolls showed an increase of +139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of +130,000.

• The report bolstered the USD slightly and lifted equity indices, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all gaining over 0.7%.

• The USD remains supported by strong employment data, keeping EUR/USD under pressure.

2. ECB’s Monetary Policy Moves

• On June 5, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.00%, refinancing rate to 2.15%, and overnight lending rate to 2.40%.

• ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that rate cuts are “nearly concluded,” signaling a pause in the easing cycle.

• May’s wage growth matched the inflation target of ~2%, providing some relief to policymakers.

🔍 EUR/USD Analysis

Dual Pressure:

• USD Strength: Supported by robust NFP data and the Federal Reserve’s steady monetary stance.

• EUR Weakness: Weighed down by ECB rate cuts but stabilizing with signals of a pause in further easing.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: 1.1375 – 1.1380; a breach could see the pair drop toward 1.1315 – 1.1220.

• Resistance: 1.1445 – 1.1500; closing above 1.1455–1.1495 could confirm a continued upward trend.

📌 Conclusion & Strategy

• The EUR/USD pair remains range-bound, awaiting key US CPI data and further guidance from the ECB.

• Trading Strategy:

  • Consider buying on dips near 1.1380, targeting 1.1450–1.1500, if technical reversal signs emerge.

  • Alternatively, short-sell if the pair breaks below support and holds.

🔗 Sources

This content was compiled using trusted sources including Reuters, FXStreet, XTB, and DailyForex for the most accurate and timely information:

• Instant View: ECB delivers another rate cut

• Christine Lagarde signals ECB rate-cutting ‘nearly concluded’

• ECB to cut red tape for banks, but don’t expect ‘Big Bang’