Forex Today (August 29, 2025): US PCE & German Flash CPI Take Center Stage
Updated 12:58 ICT · Data verified from official releases & major wires · Times in Vietnam (ICT)
Market Snapshot
- US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 98.0, pressured by dovish Fed expectations and rate cut bets for September.
- Gold holds above $3,400/oz; Silver consolidates just below $39/oz.
- WTI crude stabilizes around $65/bbl amid seasonal demand slowdown and global supply adjustments.
- EUR/USD near 1.1660; GBP/USD around 1.3500; USD/JPY below 147.0; AUD/USD steady near 0.6530.
*Levels are indicative intraday ranges, subject to real-time moves.
Key Data Releases – Friday, August 29
| Event | Time (ICT) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US – PCE & Core PCE (July) | 19:30 | Core PCE seen at 0.3% m/m; 2.9% y/y (highest since early 2025). |
| US – Advance Goods Trade Balance | 19:30 | Monthly advance release by Census Bureau. |
| US – U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final, Aug) | 21:00 | Final August revision. |
| Germany – Flash CPI (Aug) | All day | Expected mid-afternoon EU time; will steer EUR ahead of ECB speeches. |
International times: 8:30 & 10:00 ET (US). German CPI per Destatis schedule during EU trading hours.
Major Pairs Outlook
EUR/USD
Trades near 1.1660. Investors await German CPI and ECB’s consumer inflation expectations report before ECB Vice-President de Guindos speaks.
GBP/USD
Holds steady around 1.3500. UK Nationwide housing data will be the next domestic driver.
USD/JPY
Slips below 147.0 after Tokyo core CPI eased to 2.5% y/y. A heavy Japanese data calendar today (unemployment, retail sales, industrial output).
AUD/USD
Stays above 0.6500, supported by risk sentiment. Local focus on Housing Credit and Private Sector Credit figures.
Commodities
Gold & Silver
Gold extends gains north of $3,400, targeting resistance at $3,420–3,435. Silver consolidates just under $39/oz.
Crude Oil (WTI)
WTI trades near $65 as traders factor in the end of the US driving season and resumed Russian flows to Europe.
Strategy Notes (Informational Only)
- Pre-PCE window: Expect volatility around 19:30–21:00 ICT; risk management is key.
- USD/JPY: Bias remains bearish below 147.0; watch Japanese data and US yields.
- Gold: Strong bullish bias as USD weakens; key resistance $3,420+.
- EUR/USD: CPI upside surprise in Germany would support EUR; weaker data could cap gains.
This is not investment advice. Always set stop-loss and adjust after real data hits.
